O Intermitente
(So long, farewell, auf weidersehen, good-bye)

quinta-feira, julho 31, 2003

Futuros pt III

No EconLog Arnold Kling também faz a apologia do mercado de futuros e cita a opinião de vários especialistas. Queria destacar um em particular:

The futures market in orange juice concentrate is a better predictor of Florida weather than the National Weather Service. The Iowa Electronic Markets outperform the opinion polls in predicting presidential election vote shares. Hewlett Packard ran a market forecasting printer sales that outpredicted any of its analysts. The Defense Department should be applauded for admitting to its own limitations. Last winter we studied a market in "Saddam Securities" that proved to be a good predictor of the probability of war in Iraq.
posted by Miguel Noronha 5:32 da tarde