O Intermitente<br> (So long, farewell, auf weidersehen, good-bye)

O Intermitente
(So long, farewell, auf weidersehen, good-bye)

terça-feira, julho 29, 2003

Futuros Sobre o Terrorismo - Uma Solução "Liberal"? (via Instapundit)

Apesar de algumas mentes "esclarecidas" julgarem tratar-se de um disparate, a verdade é que prevista bolsa de futuros sobre o terrorismo pode ser uma forma de agregar informação dispersa mais eficaz (uma solução "liberal") do que o recurso aos analistas especializados das agências de informação (similar à da economia planificada). O OxBlog também concorda:

Knowledge and expertise are widely diffused in any society. As I explained at length in a post on Hayek last year, complex systems function by finding ways to aggregate diffuse knowledge into simple indices, which then allow actors in the system to take advantage of knowledge that they don't actually have (e.g., no one knows exactly what Americans' breakfast cereal preference orderings are, but by watching the information-aggregating index that we call "price," producers can generally ensure that, when you go to the supermarket, you'll find the brand you want. Compare that to the shortages of some items and overproduction of others that centrally planned economies have produced). A futures market in terrorist attacks, while it sounds grisly, may help us to aggregate diffuse knowledge in a way that will prove superior to expert knowledge. It also may not, but it seems to me that it's worth a try. At the very least, if we're going to demand that the government get creative in fighting terror, we shouldn't be so quick to criticize when it does just that.

There is the problem of "insider trading" -- i.e., terrorists placing bets on when terrorist attacks will occur. But it strikes me that there's probably some feasible way to set up the system so as to help us catch people who try to do this.

ACTUALIZAÇÃO: Segundo as últimas notícias este projecto vai ser abandonado. A compilação da informação vai continuar a ser feita pelos métodos "tradicionais. É pena que, mais uma vez, se insista em soluções que já demonstraram ser pouco fiáveis e não se dê oportunidade a outras mais inovadoras.
posted by Miguel Noronha 2:44 da tarde

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"A society that does not recognize that each individual has values of his own which he is entitled to follow can have no respect for the dignity of the individual and cannot really know freedom."

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