sexta-feira, julho 18, 2003
Os Mitos da Deflação pt II
Tipos de deflação - lado da procura
1. Growth Deflation:
"As a consequence of rapid technological improvement and its embodiment in additional capital investments, labor productivity increased phenomenally in these industries [de produtos electónicos] driving down per unit costs of production and increasing profit margins. Since the resulting expansion of the supplies of goods forthcoming from these industries outstripped the expansion of the supply of dollars during this period, the effect was a spectacular drop in the prices of high-tech products and a corresponding rise in the dollar’s purchasing power in terms of these products."
"(...) the effect of growth deflation on economic activity and consumer welfare is entirely benign, because it is the result of the voluntary exchanges of property titles among resourceowners, capitalist-entrepreneurs, and consumers. These monetary transactions generate a natural increase in the value of money as a necessary complement to the growth of real wealth and income and the greater satisfaction of human wants that they yield."
2. Cash-Building Deflation:
"[W]hen an individual deliberately chooses to reduce his current spending on consumer goods and investment assets below his current income, preferring instead to add the unspent income to his cash balance held in the form of currency and checkable, or otherwise instantly accessible, bank deposits."
"Cash building usually stems from a more pessimistic or uncertain attitude toward the future caused possibly by the onset of a recession, a natural disaster or the imminent prospect of war. It may even result from speculation on the happy prospect that prices may fall in the near future as a result of economic growth or for other reasons."
"A pervasive price deflation will result causing shrinkage of the aggregate flow of dollars spent and received in income per period of time. Despite the reduction in total dollar income, however, the deflationary process caused by cash building is also benign and productive of greater economic welfare. It is initiated by the voluntary and utility-enhancing choices of some money holders to refrain from exchanging titles to their money assets on the market in the same quantities as they had previously.However, with the supply of dollars fixed, the only way in which this increased demand to hold money can be satisfied is for each dollar to become more valuable, so that the total purchasing power represented by the existing supply of money increases."
"We should note here that the fall in money expenditure that accompanies this process implies a fall in nominal wage rates as well as in consumer goods’ prices, although the real wage rate (...) remains roughly unchanged. Nevertheless, if there is interference with the free exchange of property titles on the labor market that renders the money price of labor downwardly inflexible, such as minimum wage laws or laws that grant unions exclusive privileges as bargaining agents in particular firms or industries, then unemployment and a decline in economic activity will result."
posted by Miguel Noronha 1:00 da tarde
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