quarta-feira, outubro 29, 2003
Econometria Vs Acção Humana (via Dissecting Leftism)
O Brookes News tem um artigo sobre Clive Granger Prémio Nóbel da Economia em 2003 (juntamente com Robert Engle) e o erro de utilizar modelos econométricos para prever a conduta humana.
At the best mathematical formulations can be seen as a technique to provide a snap shot at a given point in time of various economic data. In this sense it can be seen as a particular form of presenting historical data. These types of presentations, however, can tell us nothing about the driving causes of human economic activity.
What's more the employment of established historical relations to assess the impact of changes in government policies will produce misleading results notwithstanding Granger?s framework. After all, to assume that a change in government policy will leave the structure of the equations intact would mean that individuals in the economy ceased to be alive and were, in fact, frozen. In this regard Mises wrote,
"As a method of economic analysis econometrics is a childish play with figures that does not contribute anything to the elucidation of the problems of economic reality." (Ludwig von Mises, The Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science (1962), p 63.)
posted by Miguel Noronha 9:22 da manhã
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