terça-feira, novembro 25, 2003
O PEC e a Ministra
A Ministra Ferreira Leite não está errada na sua "obsessão com o défice" (ao contrário do que diz oMata-Mouros). Ainda que a recessão seja uma consequência momêntanea um estimulo artificial (como defendeu o Ministro francÊs e Miguel Cadilhe) terão consequências bem piores no futuro.
Como referem Giorgos Karanasios and André Azevedo Alves:
As stupid as it may seem to some high level EU officials, the fact is that strict, precise and rigorous limitations on deficits are one of the essential conditions that must be satisfied in order for the euro to be a stable and credible currency. In the current monetary system, recurring budget deficits would indicate to the financial markets that the euro has significant depreciation and inflationary risks. The perception of those risks would have adverse effects on investment, therefore damaging the prospects for economic growth and job creation in the euro area.
The limitation of deficits, combined with continuing fiscal competition between the several member states' tax systems, is one of the few existing safeguards against excessive government spending and the crowding out of private investment in the euro area.
The proposals for discretionary fiscal loosening will result, if implemented, in more governmental bond issuances. Given the fact that the borrowed money will be mainly spent on wage and pension increases (therefore boosting consumption), and on public works, that typically have declining returns and a significant level of waste, it is highly unlikely that any real and lasting growth could ever result from such a process. Instead, savings will be eroded and a new vicious cycle of inflation and growing public debt will be set in motion, once again repeating what happened in the recent past. A sad and heavy legacy will be left for future generations that will be forced to bear the burden of more taxes, either directly or through monetary depreciation. Only limited deficits can limit the growth of public debt and are in line with the general common sense equation that governments (and people) cannot live beyond their means.
Manuela Ferreira Leite não está errada ao defender a redução do défice. O "pecado" do Governo português é a falta de coerência ao defender uma política (acertada) para Portugal e outra (errada) para os seus parceiros da zona Euro.
posted by Miguel Noronha 6:21 da tarde
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