terça-feira, agosto 26, 2003
Lessons from the U.S. experience in building democratic nations after wars, from Germany on (via Oxblog)
Citações de um artigo da revista RAND Review:
"Unity of command is as essential in peace operations as it is in war. This unity of command can be achieved even in operations with broad multilateral participation when the major participants share a common vision and tailor the response of international institutions accordingly."
"There is no quick fix for nation-building. None of our cases was successfully completed in less than seven years."
"Multilateral nation-building is more complex and time-consuming than a unilateral approach. But the multilateral approach is considerably less expensive for individual participants.
"Multilateral nation-building can produce more thorough transformations and greater regional reconciliation than can unilateral efforts."
"There appears to be an inverse correlation between the size of the military stabilization force and the level of casualties. The higher the proportion of troops relative to the resident population, the lower the number of casualties suffered and inflicted. Indeed, most of the post-conflict operations that were generously manned suffered no casualties at all."
And as though the point weren't driven home yet: "Many factors—such as prior democratic experience, level of economic development, and social homogeneity—can influence the ease or difficulty of nation-building, but the single most important controllable determinant seems to be the level of effort, as measured in troops, money, and time" (emphasis added).
"Peaceful populations require force ratios of somewhere between one and four police officers per thousand residents. The United States as a whole has about 2.3 sworn police officers per thousand residents. Larger cities tend to have higher ratios of police to population."
"Although numbers alone do not constitute a security strategy, successful strategies for population security and control have required force ratios either as large as or larger than 20 security personnel (troops and police combined) per thousand inhabitants. This figure is roughly 10 times the ratio required for simple policing of a tranquil population."
" The British are acknowledged as the most experienced practitioners of the stabilization art. To maintain stability in Northern Ireland, the British deployed a security force (consisting of British army troops plus police from the Royal Ulster Constabulary) at a ratio of about 20 per thousand inhabitants. This is about the same force ratio that the British deployed during the Malayan counterinsurgency in the middle of the 20th century.
More recently, successful multinational operations have used initial force ratios as large as the British examples or larger. In its initial entry into Bosnia in 1995, the NATO Implementation Force brought in multinational forces corresponding to more than 20 soldiers per thousand inhabitants. After five years, the successor Stabilization Force finally fell below 10 per thousand. Operations in Kosovo during 2000 showed the same pattern; the initial forces were sized at somewhat above 20 per thousand."
"The population of Iraq today is nearly 25 million. That population would require 500,000 foreign troops on the ground to meet a standard of 20 troops per thousand residents. This number is more than three times the number of foreign troops now deployed to Iraq.... For a sustainable stabilization force on a 24-month rotation cycle, the international community would need to draw on a troop base of 2.5 million troops. Such numbers are clearly not feasible and emphasize the need for the rapid creation of indigenous security forces even while foreign troops continue to be deployed."
De acordo com a experiênia anterior, a criação das condições de segurança necessárias ao processo de democratização exigiu pelo menos 7 anos...as principais operações militares no Iraque terminaram há cerca de 4 meses...[Conclusão: Os media vão ter motivo para exercitar os seus sentimentos anti-americanos durante muito tempo. As manifestações de regozijo pela morte de americanos vão continuar.]
Todos estes processos implicaram baixas. Quanto maior o número de tropas no terreno, menor o número de baixas entre as tropas e entre a população civil. [Conclusão: Mais imperialismo americano já.]
Uma abordagem multilateral sob um comando unificado facilita o processo. [Conclusão: Os países que enviaram tropas para o Iraque estão a servir os interesses dos iraquianos da melhor forma possível.]
E quase sempre um conjunto de forças procuraram fazer descarrilar o processo através da violência...na Alemanha os ataques contra as tropas aliadas continuaram até, pelo menos, 1947...no caso do Japão, alguns pequenos contingentes resistiram até à década de 70...mais recentemente, em Timor, continuam a verificar-se ataques de milícias...[Conclusão: Existe sempre um Vietnam desconchido que espera por si...]
posted by Joao 5:21 da tarde
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